A fresh political storm is brewing in the political landscape, threatening to redefine the trajectory of the 2027 polls and potentially unseat President William Ruto.
What began as murmurs of discontent within the ruling United Democratic Alliance has evolved into open verbal sparring, with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua seemingly positioning himself as a key figure in a growing anti-Ruto axis.
The rift, once subtle and strategically concealed behind closed-door consultations, is now spilling into public discourse with the kind of intensity that signals not just dissatisfaction but outright rebellion. At the heart of the turmoil is a cocktail of betrayal, unfulfilled promises, economic strain, and the ever-looming specter of ethnic realignment.
Gachagua, known for his blunt and unabashed political style, has lately taken a confrontational tone that many interpret as a precursor to a serious presidential challenge in 2027. During a recent rally in Nyeri, Gachagua remarked, “The mountain is watching. We were told we would share the government equally, but we now see policies and appointments that neglect the very people who gave the president their votes.”
While Gachagua has not formally declared his intention to run against his former boss, his calculated appearances, engagements with regional leaders, and growing grassroots mobilization suggest a quiet but deliberate campaign.
The unity that held UDA together through the 2022 campaign—largely built on the promise of the “bottom-up economic model”—is rapidly eroding. Party insiders admit that the honeymoon ended faster than expected.
One senior UDA legislator, speaking on condition of anonymity to Kurunzi News said, “There’s a feeling that Ruto has centralized power too much and that some key leaders are being isolated. This is not the UDA we envisioned.”
President Ruto, meanwhile, has remained defiant in the face of growing criticism. Speaking in Siaya last week, he said, “I will not be distracted by sideshows. I was elected to serve all Kenyans and deliver the Bottom-Up agenda. Those who want power should wait for 2027.”
His allies have also accused Gachagua of betrayal. National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah blasted the DP’s camp, saying, “Let us not confuse ambition with insubordination. The president deserves support, not sabotage, from those supposed to be his closest allies.”
Rising opposition — From within and without
The discontent is not just within UDA. Even ODM, Kenya’s largest opposition party led by Raila Odinga, is facing its own internal squabbles following Raila’s bromance with Ruto.
The lack of a united opposition front has opened space for former allies-turned-rivals like Gachagua to exploit the situation. Interestingly, political observers believe the next formidable political force may emerge from an unexpected coalition of disgruntled leaders from both UDA and ODM.
According to constitutional lawyer and political analyst Willis Otieno, “We are witnessing a political realignment that cuts across traditional party lines. Gachagua’s strategy seems to target both the disenfranchised base within UDA and opposition supporters who feel disillusioned.”
Otieno adds, “The 2027 election is unlikely to be about parties. It will be about regional loyalty, economic grievances, and betrayal narratives. Gachagua is already setting the tone.”
Economic pressure mounts on Ruto
As political fault lines widen, Ruto’s biggest challenge remains delivering on his economic promises. The “bottom-up” economic model that formed the bedrock of his 2022 campaign is increasingly under scrutiny. The president’s push for policies such as the housing levy, digital taxation, and increased borrowing have triggered backlash from civil society and human rights organizations.
Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC) recently termed the housing levy as “a tax on the poor to enrich the elite.”They warned that if the government continues with what they termed “unsustainable populist policies,” the country could witness “widespread civil unrest and disenfranchisement.”
The economy continues to bite, with a weakening shilling, high fuel prices, and unemployment soaring. “If you promised the people milk and honey but all they have is debt and desperation, they will look for someone else to trust,” said political economist Dr. Mary Nyambura.
To counter the rising tide of dissatisfaction, Ruto has doubled down on showcasing ongoing infrastructure projects and digital job initiatives.
“We have created 350,000 digital jobs and funded over 500,000 youth enterprises. That is the Bottom-Up transformation in action,” he said during a recent function at State House.
But critics argue the numbers are inflated, and even if true, the benefits have yet to trickle down to the ordinary Kenyan.
One of the most potent tools in Kenyan politics—ethnic allegiance—is once again being invoked. Gachagua has made repeated appeals to “Mt. Kenya unity,” a phrase loaded with political implication. His recent meetings with Mt. Kenya elders, clergy, and youth groups are a clear indication of his intention to consolidate the region’s vote.
“Our community must speak with one voice. We cannot be spectators in a government we helped form,” Gachagua told a gathering in Murang’a.
Ruto, on the other hand, has tried to project a nationalistic agenda, dismissing tribalism as outdated.
“We must move past tribal politics. Let’s build a nation, not tribes,”he said at a function in Mombasa.
But political analyst Herman Manyora thinks the president is walking a tightrope.
“Kenya has not yet matured past ethnic voting patterns. Gachagua knows this and is playing his cards wisely. Ruto risks losing Mt. Kenya and not gaining enough new support to compensate.”
Looking ahead to 2027
As the clock ticks towards the next election cycle, the shape of Kenyan politics is entering a volatile phase. The Gachagua-led internal rebellion, the fragmentation in ODM, and the growing citizen frustration with economic hardships are combining into a potent force of change.
Whether that change will dethrone Ruto or merely weaken his grip remains to be seen. But one thing is clear—Kenya’s political terrain is shifting, and the players know the stakes are higher than ever.
As 2027 approaches, the question remains: Will President Ruto weather the storm, or will the silent rebellion swell into a full-blown revolution?
