As the political landscape shifts ahead of the 2027 polls, a once strong alliance between Opposition Leader Raila Odinga and President William Ruto appears to be cracking.
The pact that initially signaled the potential for unity and inclusivity in Kenya’s leadership seems to be under strain, with Odinga increasingly showing signs of unease about the direction in which the government is headed.
The citizenry, particularly his loyal supporters, are questioning whether the partnership can continue to bear fruit, especially as tensions between the two leaders mount. With the broad-based regime increasingly facing backlash, questions are now being raised about whether Odinga is positioning himself for a dramatic shift back to the opposition, and whether this could impact his chances in the upcoming 2027 elections.
Raila Odinga, a political giant who has previously contested the presidency several times, entered into a highly publicized working agreement with President William Ruto following the tumultuous 2022 election results. After the Supreme Court upheld Ruto’s victory, Odinga and his Azimio La Umoja coalition had been quick to challenge the outcome, claiming electoral malpractices.
However, after a series of violent protests and public disagreements, the two leaders surprised many by striking a deal aimed at restoring peace, stability, and inclusivity in the nation.
However, in recent months, Odinga’s rhetoric has taken a noticeable shift. The tone of his public statements, once optimistic about the success of the deal, has become increasingly critical, signaling his growing disillusionment with the arrangement. During a speech at a political rally in Kisumu, Odinga addressed the perceived lack of inclusivity in the government.
“We were promised a seat at the table, but what we have seen is a government of one party, a government that does not reflect the diversity of our people.”
His frustration is evident when he critiques the broad-based regime that President Ruto has been championing. Odinga is not alone in his disillusionment. His supporters, once hopeful that this partnership would bring about meaningful change, are now growing skeptical.
“We didn’t sign up for this. We wanted a government of unity, not a government that leaves us in the cold,” said one of Odinga’s ardent followers during a public function in Nairobi.
President William Ruto, for his part, has continued to defend the broad-based regime as a necessary step to foster national unity and to overcome the bitter divisions of previous elections. In his latest remarks, Ruto acknowledged the ongoing challenges in consolidating a truly inclusive government but reaffirmed his commitment to working with all political players.
“I have always said that this government belongs to all Kenyans, irrespective of their political affiliation. We will continue to reach out to our brothers and sisters from all sides,” Ruto declared during an event in Eldoret last week.
Despite his repeated calls for unity, Ruto’s actions have at times been interpreted as prioritizing political control over inclusivity. For instance, key positions in government have largely gone to members of his Kenya Kwanza Alliance, with minimal representation from Odinga’s Azimio coalition. This, many argue, has led to a growing perception that the pact was more about consolidating power than creating a truly united government.
Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi pointed out that Ruto’s handling of the agreement with Odinga could backfire.
“Ruto’s government is grappling with the same challenges he accused his predecessor of. The push for broad-based government risks being perceived as mere window dressing, especially if it does not translate into real political power-sharing,” Ngunyi observed in a recent interview.
The growing backlash
The Kenyan public, particularly in areas traditionally supportive of Odinga’s political base, has begun to express disillusionment with the arrangement. The expectations for a more inclusive administration have not been met, and frustrations are mounting. For instance, many critics argue that Odinga’s allies have been sidelined in key government projects, despite his role in facilitating the initial dialogue between the two leaders.
Prof. Macharia Munene, a political analyst, suggests that the lack of tangible benefits from the pact is leading to a significant erosion of Odinga’s support base.
“Raila has always been the champion of the marginalized. If his supporters feel that they are not benefiting from the current administration, they will abandon him for someone who will represent their interests,” Macharia stated. This sentiment is echoed by Odinga’s followers, who feel betrayed by the seeming lack of meaningful change after the agreement was signed.
The sentiments of disillusionment are not limited to the ordinary citizen. Even within the political elite, several leaders who initially supported the Ruto-Odinga pact are beginning to voice their concerns.
“We were told that we were going to be part of a new era, but all we see is the same old politics of exclusion. The president needs to walk the talk,” a member of parliament from the opposition remarked privately.
Will Odinga pivot back to opposition?
As the political climate grows more tense, speculation about Odinga’s future moves is intensifying. His increasing dissatisfaction with the government, combined with the pressure from his supporters, suggests that a pivot back to the opposition could be in the works. The possibility of Odinga breaking away from Ruto’s government and reasserting his role as the leader of the opposition seems more likely as the 2027 contest approach.
Veteran political strategist David Makali argues that Odinga’s move back to the opposition could reignite his political relevance.
“Raila has been in opposition for most of his political life. If he returns to that position, it might not only restore his credibility but also galvanize his supporters who feel disenfranchised,” Makali explained.
The looming 2027 elections will undoubtedly be a defining moment for both Ruto and Odinga. If Odinga chooses to distance himself from the current administration, he will once again present himself as the alternative voice to Ruto’s government. However, this will come with its own set of challenges, especially in the face of Ruto’s political machinery, which has been consolidating power and support across the country.
