More than two million Kenyans are projected to face starvation until May as food insecurity intensifies across the country, particularly in pastoral counties, according to a report by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network.
The report estimates that between 2.5 and 2.99 million people will require humanitarian food assistance from October 2024 through May 2025, with the crisis expected to peak in February ahead of the anticipated March to May rainy season.
Pastoral regions, including Turkana, Marsabit, and Garissa counties, are expected to be hardest hit due to below-average rainfall during the October-December short rains. This has resulted in poor livestock conditions, diminished milk production, and limited forage availability, leaving households to adopt negative coping mechanisms, such as skipping meals.
The situation is predicted to worsen in other areas, including Tana River, Samburu, Wajir, and Mandera counties. These regions are likely to experience a severe food crisis due to anticipated below-average rainfall in the March-May long rains, exacerbating an already dire situation for livestock and agricultural livelihoods.
Households in Makueni and Kitui counties are also expected to struggle due to poor harvests from the short rains, further depleting staple grain stocks and reducing income from crop sales. FEWS NET warned that many families may increasingly rely on crisis-level consumption and coping strategies.
Global weather forecasts indicate that the March-May rains are likely to remain below average, particularly in eastern Kenya, due to emerging La Niña conditions. This comes amid predictions of sunny and dry conditions in most parts of the country during January, with occasional rainfall in the Highlands, Rift Valley, and coastal areas, according to the Kenya Meteorological Department.
High temperatures are expected to exacerbate heat stress and discomfort across much of the country, prompting Meteorological Services Director David Gikungu to advise residents to stay hydrated and limit outdoor activities during peak heat hours.
While the dry conditions could favor harvesting of fast-maturing crops like beans and boost solar power generation, they are likely to reduce water availability in arid and semi-arid areas, particularly in northern Kenya. Gikungu urged communities to conserve water and harvest rainwater in regions with sporadic rainfall to address both domestic and livestock needs.
“Without adequate food stocks, millions will be forced to endure severe hardship,” the report emphasized, calling for immediate intervention to prevent further deterioration of the crisis.
