President William Ruto’s once meticulously crafted 2027 reelection matrix is showing alarming cracks as the opposition makes strategic inroads into his former strongholds, while internal dissent and rising police brutality alienate key voting blocs.
Despite his outward confidence, analysts warn that the United Democratic Alliance chief faces an uphill battle as former allies turn critics and the government’s heavy-handed tactics fuel resentment.
The opposition led by ousted Rigathi Gachagua has intensified its grassroots mobilization in the vote-rich Mt. Kenya region, Western Kenya, and the Coast, areas once considered Ruto’s political fortress.
“Ruto’s promises of ‘Bottom-Up’ prosperity have turned into ‘Top-Down’ oppression. The hustler narrative is dead, and the people are waking up,”says Lawyer Willis Otieno, a prominent political commentator. “The more the police abduct and brutalize dissenters, the more votes Raila harvests.”
Gachagua Mt.Kenya factor
Perhaps the most damaging blow to Ruto’s reelection bid is the sustained rebellion from his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua. The ex-DP’s relentless exposure of government misdeeds, from skewed appointments to corruption, has eroded UDA’s influence in Mt. Kenya, a region that contributed nearly 30% of Ruto’s 2022 votes.
“When a man who stood with you starts calling you out, you know your house is on fire,”remarks a senior UDA MP who sought anonymity.”Gachagua is not just fighting Ruto; he’s dismantling the myth of invincibility around him.”
Gachagua’s recent claims that the government has sidelined Mt. Kenya in development projects have struck a chord, with local leaders now openly questioning their loyalty to Ruto.
Double-Edged Sword?
The recent political détente between Ruto and Raila Odinga dubbed “Handshake 2.0” has further muddled the president’s standing. While Luo Nyanza and other opposition zones may benefit from renewed state projects, critics argue the move reeks of desperation and undermines UDA’s credibility.
“This handshake isn’t about unity; it’s about survival,” says ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna. “Ruto knows his base is slipping, so he’s clinging to Raila to buy time. But Kenyans aren’t fools, they see through the hypocrisy.”
“I’m the SG of ODM is speak the stance of the party. Mine is to check the scorecard of the agreement that my boss-Raila signed with President Ruto. Come 2027 the party will have a presidential, I do not recognize broad-based.”
Even within UDA, murmurs of discontent grow louder.
“Why shake hands with the same man we demonized to win power?” questions a UDA youth leader from Nakuru. “Our supporters feel betrayed.”
The government’s crackdown on protests and abductions of activists have become a rallying point for the opposition. Images of bloodied protesters and tear-gassed university students dominate social media, drawing comparisons to the oppressive tactics of the Moi era.
“Every young person arrested or killed is a nail in Ruto’s political coffin,” says Willis Otieno. *”You can’t brutalize a generation and expect their parents to vote for you.”
Ruto confidence vs. the reality on the ground
Despite the storm, Ruto remains defiant, projecting unwavering confidence in his reelection. At a recent rally in Meru, he dismissed critics, declaring, “No amount of propaganda can stop God’s plan for Kenya.”
But political strategists warn that his optimism may be misplaced.
“Ruto is a master tactician, but even the best generals lose when their soldiers defect,” says Prof. Herman Manyora, a political analyst.
“If Gachagua’s revolt spreads and Raila consolidates the anti-Ruto vote, 2027 could be a humiliating upset.”
